ABSTRACT
We investigate a model of the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic comprising undetected infected individuals as well as behavioural change towards the use of self-protection measures. The model is fitted to China data reported between 22 January and 29 June 2020. Using fitting results, we then consider model responses to varying screening intensities. © 2022 Julien Arino, Khalid El Hail, Mohamed Khaladi, Aziz Ouhinou.
ABSTRACT
Morocco is among the countries that started setting up confinement in the early stage of the COVID-19 spread. Comparing the number of cumulative cases in various countries, a partial lock-down has delayed the exponential outbreak of COVID-19 in Morocco. Using a compartmental model, we attempt to estimate the mean proportion of correctly confined sub-population in Morocco as well as its effect on the continuing spread of COVID-19. A fitting to Moroccan data is established. Furthermore, we have highlighted some COVID-19 epidemic scenarios that could have happened in Morocco after the deconfinement onset while considering a different combination of preventive measures. © The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, ROADEF, SMAI 2022.